Mr Peter Buckingham, Co-Founder and Managing Director of Spectrum Analysis Australia, explains why data-driven planning – not guesswork – is essential for schools navigating growth, enrolments, and strategic investment in 2026.
When making strategic decisions for your school, do you start with facts and data, or do you rely on assumptions and gut feeling? In this day and age, hoping for the best is not a strategy. Data is available to answer most of your questions in a factual manner, and if schools cannot use facts and data in their planning, what message does that send to students?
Principals, business managers and directors are highly educated, often with advanced degrees, and are entrusted with the long-term future of their schools. Decisions should be grounded in evidence, not emotion or the old “wet finger in the air” approach. The stakes are high: multi-million-dollar building programs, staffing, and sustainability all depend on accurate forecasting.
There is a wealth of information available to assist in these decisions, much of it free, but the challenge lies in making it usable. Every five years, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) conducts a Census, the most recent in August 2021. Over the following years, data sets are released that include population by gender, age, ethnicity, income, religious affiliation, and schooling trends. This becomes the starting point for the next five-year cycle.
Population forecasts are another critical resource. The ABS released its latest projections in October 2024, covering 2022 to 2032, and these have been extrapolated to 2037. These forecasts break down by gender and age groups, including 0–4, 5–9, 10–14, and 15–19, which are essential for schools. For example, the Austral–Greendale area in New South Wales is forecast to increase by around 13,300 school-aged students between 2025 and 2037, representing a 580 per cent increase for children aged 5–18. This level of growth has enormous implications for enrolment planning, staffing, and infrastructure.
Socio-economic data is equally important. The SEIFA index, based on Census data, provides a comparative score for every area in Australia, indicating relative advantage or disadvantage. The national average SEIFA score is 1004, with affluent suburbs like Double Bay or Toorak scoring near 1200, while some regional areas fall as low as 600–800. This metric is a far better indicator of a community’s capacity to pay school fees than average household income.
Annual data from ACARA and the MySchool website adds another layer of insight. These sources track enrolments, staffing, and parent contributions over time. Consider one independent school in a high-growth area: enrolments have surged from 169 students in 2008 to 1,639 in 2024 – an increase of nearly 870 per cent. Year-on-year growth has been consistent, with double-digit percentage increases in many years. Average fees have also risen, from $5,405 in 2020 to $6,482 in 2023. These figures highlight the importance of understanding both demand and affordability when planning for the future.
When setting up a strategic plan, demographic forecasts should be your starting point. You may believe that population growth will drive enrolments and that families can afford your fees, but can you present this as a solid, sustainable case to your board?
Many schools are committing to major capital works based on projected growth. Without robust data, these investments risk becoming liabilities. Conversely, accurate analysis can reveal opportunities – such as opening a new campus or expanding programs – before competitors act.
Good data underpins good decisions. Whether you build internal capability or engage external experts, the goal is the same: transform raw data into actionable insights. At Spectrum Analysis, we specialise in demographic analysis and mapping for schools, providing reports and interactive tools that keep your planning current. In 2025 and beyond, hope is not a strategy. Data is. Use it to secure your school’s future.
