Australia’s schools are entering a period of significant demographic change, with student populations falling in some areas and rising in others, according to a new white paper by Mr Peter Buckingham, Co-Founder and Managing Director of Spectrum Analysis.
Children born in 2008 are turning 18 in 2026, meaning many are leaving the school system. Combined with a decline in total fertility rates, this is contributing to reduced student numbers in multiple regions.
“With fewer children per mother, total student numbers are declining in many locations across Australia,” the report notes.
High socio-economic inner suburbs are also seeing declines. Older residents are less likely to move, and lower fertility rates in these areas mean fewer school-age children.
“High socio-economic inner suburban areas have fewer school-age children due to both ageing populations and lower fertility rates,” Mr Buckingham highlights. By contrast, outer metropolitan areas continue to grow, fueled by higher fertility rates and migration.
Rising female workforce participation is driving demand for early childhood education. “Many families require childcare options before their child attends primary school,” the white paper states.
Independent school enrolments have grown significantly from 2008 to 2024, potentially affecting Catholic and government schools. “Schools need contingency plans and additional funds on standby to respond to sudden changes in enrolments or economic conditions,” Mr Buckingham advises.
Government initiatives, such as the Better and Fairer Schools Agreement, are improving public education and may influence future enrolments. Schools in higher socio-economic areas with very low fertility rates may need to attract students from further afield and provide transport solutions.
“Selected schools are considering additional campus locations in areas of higher projected population growth,” the report adds.
Other emerging trends include: higher-fertility migrant families moving to outer suburbs, housing supply expansions driving student population growth, single-sex schools transitioning to co-education, and Independent schools offering childcare from age three.
The white paper offers insights to help schools plan for changing student populations and adapt to evolving demographic and socio-economic conditions.
